New Knesset Speaker Could Be Key to Ousting Netanyahu as Israel's PM

Israel's new Knesset will be sworn in on Tuesday, giving opposition parties their first opportunity to seize control of parliamentary machinery even as they struggle to form a coalition government capable of replacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

At the top of the opposition's agenda is replacing the current speaker, Amir Ohana, a close Netanyahu ally. The speaker controls the legislative agenda and committee chair appointments, making the post a powerful tool for either advancing or blocking legislation.

Matan Kahana in line for speaker

The opposition has coalesced around Matan Kahana, a former minister, fighter pilot and special forces officer from the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot. Kahana has the explicit backing of all four Jewish Israeli parties in Eisenkot's "change" bloc, and the two Palestinian-led opposition parties have also made replacing Ohana a priority.

Together, the opposition holds 67 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, more than enough to elect a consensus speaker. The parties plan to request a vote on Tuesday afternoon, although Ohana can take up to a week to bring the motion to the floor.

Lieberman nominated to lead key committee

Avigdor Lieberman, who leads another opposition party, has been nominated to chair the influential foreign affairs and defence committee. That committee is expected to play a central role in drafting legislation on the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men, a longtime priority for Lieberman and a divisive issue in Israeli politics.

Lieberman has campaigned for universal military or civilian service, arguing that the current system of broad exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students is unfair to other Israelis. If he takes control of the committee, he could accelerate work on a conscription bill.

Security officials warn of violence

The significance of the speaker vote is high enough that more than 160 former senior security officials issued a warning at the weekend. In a letter to serving security chiefs, they said right-wing activists were planning to disrupt the swearing-in ceremony with violent attacks.

"Actors who oppose replacing the Knesset speaker intend to go to the Knesset on the day of the swearing-in ceremony and to prevent the MKs and their family members from entering the building," the forum of retired commanders said. They also claimed the activists were encouraging tens of thousands of supporters to join them.

Coalition talks remain complicated

All opposition parties have described Netanyahu as a threat to the state and want to move against him in parliament. Yet deep divisions are blocking the formation of a coalition. Several Jewish-Israeli opposition parties have sworn not to sit with the Palestinian-led parties, which hold more than a quarter of the opposition bloc's seats.

Eisenkot has promised to broker a national emergency government through "creative and unconventional political acts." He has also acknowledged that campaign promises will have to be broken and compromises made. "No one will be able to fulfil all the promises they made, and all of us will need to compromise," he said.

Netanyahu's path to survival

Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister and has not run out of options. Even if Eisenkot reaches a coalition deal, he may delay announcing it until Ohana is replaced, because the current speaker could use procedural tools to stall a new government for up to a week.

If Eisenkot fails to form a government, the mandate passes to other leaders. If they also fail, Israel would hold new elections, leaving Netanyahu and his far-right allies in office as a caretaker government. Some analysts believe a prolonged stalemate followed by a fresh vote offers Netanyahu his best chance of returning to power.