Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and one of the sharpest critics of Israeli policy in Democratic politics, won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary on 5 August, beating Representative Haley Stevens by a narrow margin. He goes on to face the Republican representative Mike Rogers in November in a race both sides expect to be close.
The money is the part that will be studied. AIPAC put around 30 million dollars behind Stevens, and outside groups spent more than 60 million in total, leaving her with roughly a nine to one advantage. That is the largest sum the pro Israel lobby has committed to a primary, and it did not produce a win. El-Sayed had endorsements instead: Senator Bernie Sanders and Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib.
His positions leave little room for interpretation. He opposes American aid to Israel, has argued that money is the only reason Democrats who believe in human rights would support it, and told CNN that every definition of a Jewish state ends up in some articulation of illiberal values, every single one. AIPAC said its members remain determined to see voters reject him in November.
The result is not isolated, which is why it carries weight beyond one state. Candidates who ran on similar positions have won this cycle in New York and Colorado, among them Zohran Mamdani in the New York mayoral race. A primary in Michigan, with the largest Arab American population of any state, is a particular case. A pattern of them across several states is a different matter, and one an Israeli government will have to read as a change in the party rather than a local upset.