A Fourteen Country Alliance for a Strait Saudi Arabia Cannot Afford to Lose

Saudi Arabia is reported to be preparing a major offensive against the Houthis, by sea and possibly including a ground operation. The Guardian has reported Saudi forces withdrawing from eastern Yemen, a movement that can indicate repositioning ahead of an operation rather than disengagement from one.

Separately, a fourteen country maritime alliance has been announced to keep navigation open through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Its members are Bahrain, Bangladesh, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Nigeria, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Turkey and Yemen, a list assembled by geography and shipping exposure rather than by alignment.

The trigger was the Houthi declaration of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia on 20 July, which followed the first exchange of fire between the two in years earlier that month. The 2022 truce has technically expired but has broadly held until now.

For Riyadh the strait is not one route among several. With the Strait of Hormuz contested, Bab el-Mandeb is the alternative, and losing both at once would leave Saudi exports dependent on chokepoints an adversary controls. Red Sea shipping volumes have still not fully recovered from the Houthi campaign that began in November 2023.